景象形象科普

天气变更背景下汛期天气展望需有更宽视线

发布时辰:2021-12-11 16:30:40 作者: 字体:

本期佳宾: 中国工程院院士 丁一汇

采访人: 中国景象形象报记者 卢健

本期概念:

本年超强梅雨是在一次弱的厄尔尼诺背景下发生的,这通报出一个主要旌旗灯号: 在天气变更背景下对汛期长江流域降雨停止预告,必须扩展视线,既要存眷传统的承平洋,也要正视印度洋与北冰洋的影响。

从印度洋一向到孟加拉湾和陆地大陆地区的海-气探测,对将来的天气展望很是有代价。

zaitianqizhanwangzhong,you“xunqizhangjiangdashuikanchengpingyang”dechuantongshuofa。hanqingshangzhangjiangliuyujihuidaxunmianqian,douyoufashengzaihandaichengpingyangdeeerninuozheiweiqiangwulituishoudeshenying,jingchangpishichuizouzhexunqizhangjiangliuyudebaoyu“lezhang”。keshizaibenniandechaoqiangmeiyushiwuzhong,quebingburuchangpiejianlaizichengpingyangdeneiwei“pishizhe”,neimoshisheizaidaochangzhudaozheichangchaoqiangmeiyu?

厄尔尼诺的感化纪律被突破了?

meiyuqizhang、yuquguimoguang、leijiyuliangda、qiangjiangshuijinchengduo……huishoubenniandemeihanji,tesehenshituqi,cizhongzhangjiangdiquhejianghuaidiquleijijiangyuliangjunweijuhanqingdier,shiyicidianfandechaoqiangmeiyu。

danguojiwaibushaozhuanjiaxuezhezaifupancicidianfanchaoqiangmeiyushi,doufamingleqimeifashuhudeyige“feidianfanxing”tese。“anzhaochuantongshuofa,woguoxunqizhangjiangliuyubaoyuputongdoushizaichengpingyangqiangeerninuobeijingxiafasheng。bifang,shirenyingxiangyouxinde1983nianhe1998nianzhangjiangdadashui,jiubielishi1982/1983nianhe1997/1998niandechaoqiangeerninuoerzhi。”dingyihuishuo,“danbenniandemeihanjizewanzhengbuyiyang,zaozaozaibennian5yuecibietianqiwutaideeerninuoshiwu,kancheng1951nianyilaihanqingzuiruo。danbianshizairuxudebeijingxia,xunqizhangjiangliuyubaoyuyilunyouyilundiyanxufasheng,bingzhongjiuchongshanglehanqingdierqiang。”

yantaozheyongnino3.4zhishu (jiyuhaibiaowendudeeerninuo/nanbiantaodongmubiaozhiyi)zhongxiubennian6~7yuezhangjiangliuyujiangshuijupingfaming,chengguoyuxianshiguanchazhixiangchashenyuan,erzaichayanzhong,bennianzhangjiangbaoyuyuchengpingyanghaiwenxiangganxinghenruo。zheixiedoubiaomingbennianeerninuodailaideyingxiangqueqiehenshiruo。

neimosheishibennianchaoqiangmeiyudezhudaozhe?

六次暴雨面前的准双周振荡

“zaiduibennianmeiyuqijiangshuitingzhichanfahou,zanmenfaminglebiedeyigezhuyaotese——yibeiwei30°xianweizhongjian,bennianzhangjiangliuyuyudaiqianhoufashengduoda6lundenanbeizhendang。”zheiyinfaledingyihuihetadegongshimendechugecunjuan,zaiduibennianxunqitianqihetianqihuanliutingzhitixichanfahou,tadechuleyigezhuyaolunduan: yudaizhendangshiyigebiaoxiang,qimianqiandejiezhizhe,qiashifuhandaigaoya (jianchengfugao)zhunshuangzhouzhendang。

juci,tashulichucizhongdetianqiliantiao: meicifugaobeitiaozhibeiwei30°sizhou,nanmianlaidenuanshiqiliubianxiangbeitingjinyici,bingyucongbeijiaerhu-mengguheribenhailiangzhinanxiadelengfenweizaibeiwei30°sizhouxiangyu。erzheyicicizaicijiaohuibingbiciganhua,bianshibennianmeiyuqizhangjiangliuyuyanxufashenglianggeyuedabaoyudejianjieyuanyou。

“bennianzhangjiangliuyudabaoyudejiaodiantimu,bianshifuhandaigaoyadezhunshuangzhouzhendang。fannangxijiang,zhiyaoyingyongdaqidezhunshuangzhouzhendang,nengliquanshizhei6cibaoyujinchengfashengdeyuanyou。”dingyihuishuo。

guanjiantixisuodinghou,biedeyigetimuyoulaile: bennianfugaodezhunshuangzhouzhendangzheimejiaozhe,tadequnengyuanshishenmeni?

印度洋“浮出水面”

nangxiyantaobianjiyiwei,fugaodezhunshuangzhouzhendanglaizichengpingyang,danbennian“henshiruodeeerninuonian”rangxuezhebudebucongtousilv: zheileizhunshuangzhouzhendangshibushihuizaodaobiedehaijiangyingxiang?

weiyudongyadongbeibianxiangdeyinduyangjinrulerenmendeshixian。zaibennianxunqizhangjiangliuyubaoyuzuiqiangdeshichen,chengpingyangeerninuoshiwuyijunshibingzhengxianglaninagaibian,ercishideyinduyangque“yipianhong”,zheixiangzhengzheyinduyanghenshibiannuan。zaiwangqiankan,zheileigaohaiwenzhuangkuangyichouqiandongyanxudaochunxia。anzhaoludixuejiadeyantao,zheishisuoweiyinduyangoujizi(iod)zhengweixiangjiliechengzhangdechengguo(suoweichaodengyinduyangoujizi)。

xunzheyinduyanghaiwendejiliejingqidenghao,yitiaoxindeluojiliantiaobeishulilechulai: zaibennianchengpingyangeerninuopianruodebeijingxia,yinduyangjiliezengwen,yindujifengpianqiang,dongbeifengxiafashengdenuanpingliujiaya,shidexichengpingyanghenanhaifugaozengqiang。yiciyouyicidenuanpingliu,zhongjiu“qianyin”zhefugaoyiciyouyicixishenzengqiang。nangxishizaieerninuoshiwuheioddepeihequdongxiashifugaozengqiang,bennianweiyiyinduyangdeganhua,zheishihenzhangduanchangde。

“congtongjichanfakan,duiyinduyangmotaitingzhipianxiangganhuigui,suohuodede500baipahe850baipadexiangganxishudoushihenshigaode。”dingyihuixianrong,chupianxianggan,yinduyangbipoxiafashengdezhangjiangbaoyusanbudiquyehuodelehenhaodeduiying,eryuhandaichengpingyangwuxiangganxing。

xianshishang,nangxi20nianli,yinduyangyixiangzaishengwenzhong,bingyidaole“busuoweixiajiang、xiajiang,zhiyaoshengwenshikuaishiman”deshuiping。zaidingyihuikanlai,ciqianyinduyangduixunqizhangjiangliuyujiangyuqingshidejiezhiganhuakexuejiazaoyoushuxi,bingqietayueerninuonianjingchangfashengxietongganhua。keshizaiqiangeerninuoniandeyanbixiaoyingzhixia,zheileiyinduyangdeyingxiangjingchangbeishuhule。erzaijianglaijinian,yifangmianchengpingyangchuantongdedongbuxingeerninuoshiwujiangjiaozhexuejian,biedeyifangmianduanshijianneiyinduyanghaiwenzhenghenshijiangyixiangyanxuxiaqu。zonghelaikan,yinduyangzengwenyinfadejifengyufuhandaigaoyadedipinzhendangnenggouhaijiangyanxuxiaqu。dingyihuijinyibuzhichu,benniandezheigelizigaozhizanmen,jibianbueerninuoganhua,yinduyangdehenshiganhua(zhengiodxing)yiyangnenggouyinfazhangjiangdabaoyu。

“zheiduitianqizhanwanglaijiangshiyigehenshidadetiaoxin。”dingyihuiyiwei,duiwoguoxunqizhangjiangliuyubaoyuyugaoyingyelaijiang,shixianbixuchongshifankai,chengpingyang、yinduyang、beibingyangdouyaozhenzhuo,ercongyinduyangyixiangdaomengjialawandehai-qitance,duijianglaidetianqizhanwangjianghenshiyoudaijia。jiuyuanlaikan,cihoutianqizhanwangbixuchenglizaiduitianqibiangengchongshizhengshidegenbenshang,bingbushizengqiangduixinjilvdeyantaohebawonengliquzhuxindetiaoxin。


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天气变更背景下汛期天气展望需有更宽视线
2021-12-11 16:30:40

本期佳宾: 中国工程院院士 丁一汇

采访人: 中国景象形象报记者 卢健

本期概念:

本年超强梅雨是在一次弱的厄尔尼诺背景下发生的,这通报出一个主要旌旗灯号: 在天气变更背景下对汛期长江流域降雨停止预告,必须扩展视线,既要存眷传统的承平洋,也要正视印度洋与北冰洋的影响。

从印度洋一向到孟加拉湾和陆地大陆地区的海-气探测,对将来的天气展望很是有代价。

zaitianqizhanwangzhong,you“xunqizhangjiangdashuikanchengpingyang”dechuantongshuofa。hanqingshangzhangjiangliuyujihuidaxunmianqian,douyoufashengzaihandaichengpingyangdeeerninuozheiweiqiangwulituishoudeshenying,jingchangpishichuizouzhexunqizhangjiangliuyudebaoyu“lezhang”。keshizaibenniandechaoqiangmeiyushiwuzhong,quebingburuchangpiejianlaizichengpingyangdeneiwei“pishizhe”,neimoshisheizaidaochangzhudaozheichangchaoqiangmeiyu?

厄尔尼诺的感化纪律被突破了?

meiyuqizhang、yuquguimoguang、leijiyuliangda、qiangjiangshuijinchengduo……huishoubenniandemeihanji,tesehenshituqi,cizhongzhangjiangdiquhejianghuaidiquleijijiangyuliangjunweijuhanqingdier,shiyicidianfandechaoqiangmeiyu。

danguojiwaibushaozhuanjiaxuezhezaifupancicidianfanchaoqiangmeiyushi,doufamingleqimeifashuhudeyige“feidianfanxing”tese。“anzhaochuantongshuofa,woguoxunqizhangjiangliuyubaoyuputongdoushizaichengpingyangqiangeerninuobeijingxiafasheng。bifang,shirenyingxiangyouxinde1983nianhe1998nianzhangjiangdadashui,jiubielishi1982/1983nianhe1997/1998niandechaoqiangeerninuoerzhi。”dingyihuishuo,“danbenniandemeihanjizewanzhengbuyiyang,zaozaozaibennian5yuecibietianqiwutaideeerninuoshiwu,kancheng1951nianyilaihanqingzuiruo。danbianshizairuxudebeijingxia,xunqizhangjiangliuyubaoyuyilunyouyilundiyanxufasheng,bingzhongjiuchongshanglehanqingdierqiang。”

yantaozheyongnino3.4zhishu (jiyuhaibiaowendudeeerninuo/nanbiantaodongmubiaozhiyi)zhongxiubennian6~7yuezhangjiangliuyujiangshuijupingfaming,chengguoyuxianshiguanchazhixiangchashenyuan,erzaichayanzhong,bennianzhangjiangbaoyuyuchengpingyanghaiwenxiangganxinghenruo。zheixiedoubiaomingbennianeerninuodailaideyingxiangqueqiehenshiruo。

neimosheishibennianchaoqiangmeiyudezhudaozhe?

六次暴雨面前的准双周振荡

“zaiduibennianmeiyuqijiangshuitingzhichanfahou,zanmenfaminglebiedeyigezhuyaotese——yibeiwei30°xianweizhongjian,bennianzhangjiangliuyuyudaiqianhoufashengduoda6lundenanbeizhendang。”zheiyinfaledingyihuihetadegongshimendechugecunjuan,zaiduibennianxunqitianqihetianqihuanliutingzhitixichanfahou,tadechuleyigezhuyaolunduan: yudaizhendangshiyigebiaoxiang,qimianqiandejiezhizhe,qiashifuhandaigaoya (jianchengfugao)zhunshuangzhouzhendang。

juci,tashulichucizhongdetianqiliantiao: meicifugaobeitiaozhibeiwei30°sizhou,nanmianlaidenuanshiqiliubianxiangbeitingjinyici,bingyucongbeijiaerhu-mengguheribenhailiangzhinanxiadelengfenweizaibeiwei30°sizhouxiangyu。erzheyicicizaicijiaohuibingbiciganhua,bianshibennianmeiyuqizhangjiangliuyuyanxufashenglianggeyuedabaoyudejianjieyuanyou。

“bennianzhangjiangliuyudabaoyudejiaodiantimu,bianshifuhandaigaoyadezhunshuangzhouzhendang。fannangxijiang,zhiyaoyingyongdaqidezhunshuangzhouzhendang,nengliquanshizhei6cibaoyujinchengfashengdeyuanyou。”dingyihuishuo。

guanjiantixisuodinghou,biedeyigetimuyoulaile: bennianfugaodezhunshuangzhouzhendangzheimejiaozhe,tadequnengyuanshishenmeni?

印度洋“浮出水面”

nangxiyantaobianjiyiwei,fugaodezhunshuangzhouzhendanglaizichengpingyang,danbennian“henshiruodeeerninuonian”rangxuezhebudebucongtousilv: zheileizhunshuangzhouzhendangshibushihuizaodaobiedehaijiangyingxiang?

weiyudongyadongbeibianxiangdeyinduyangjinrulerenmendeshixian。zaibennianxunqizhangjiangliuyubaoyuzuiqiangdeshichen,chengpingyangeerninuoshiwuyijunshibingzhengxianglaninagaibian,ercishideyinduyangque“yipianhong”,zheixiangzhengzheyinduyanghenshibiannuan。zaiwangqiankan,zheileigaohaiwenzhuangkuangyichouqiandongyanxudaochunxia。anzhaoludixuejiadeyantao,zheishisuoweiyinduyangoujizi(iod)zhengweixiangjiliechengzhangdechengguo(suoweichaodengyinduyangoujizi)。

xunzheyinduyanghaiwendejiliejingqidenghao,yitiaoxindeluojiliantiaobeishulilechulai: zaibennianchengpingyangeerninuopianruodebeijingxia,yinduyangjiliezengwen,yindujifengpianqiang,dongbeifengxiafashengdenuanpingliujiaya,shidexichengpingyanghenanhaifugaozengqiang。yiciyouyicidenuanpingliu,zhongjiu“qianyin”zhefugaoyiciyouyicixishenzengqiang。nangxishizaieerninuoshiwuheioddepeihequdongxiashifugaozengqiang,bennianweiyiyinduyangdeganhua,zheishihenzhangduanchangde。

“congtongjichanfakan,duiyinduyangmotaitingzhipianxiangganhuigui,suohuodede500baipahe850baipadexiangganxishudoushihenshigaode。”dingyihuixianrong,chupianxianggan,yinduyangbipoxiafashengdezhangjiangbaoyusanbudiquyehuodelehenhaodeduiying,eryuhandaichengpingyangwuxiangganxing。

xianshishang,nangxi20nianli,yinduyangyixiangzaishengwenzhong,bingyidaole“busuoweixiajiang、xiajiang,zhiyaoshengwenshikuaishiman”deshuiping。zaidingyihuikanlai,ciqianyinduyangduixunqizhangjiangliuyujiangyuqingshidejiezhiganhuakexuejiazaoyoushuxi,bingqietayueerninuonianjingchangfashengxietongganhua。keshizaiqiangeerninuoniandeyanbixiaoyingzhixia,zheileiyinduyangdeyingxiangjingchangbeishuhule。erzaijianglaijinian,yifangmianchengpingyangchuantongdedongbuxingeerninuoshiwujiangjiaozhexuejian,biedeyifangmianduanshijianneiyinduyanghaiwenzhenghenshijiangyixiangyanxuxiaqu。zonghelaikan,yinduyangzengwenyinfadejifengyufuhandaigaoyadedipinzhendangnenggouhaijiangyanxuxiaqu。dingyihuijinyibuzhichu,benniandezheigelizigaozhizanmen,jibianbueerninuoganhua,yinduyangdehenshiganhua(zhengiodxing)yiyangnenggouyinfazhangjiangdabaoyu。

“zheiduitianqizhanwanglaijiangshiyigehenshidadetiaoxin。”dingyihuiyiwei,duiwoguoxunqizhangjiangliuyubaoyuyugaoyingyelaijiang,shixianbixuchongshifankai,chengpingyang、yinduyang、beibingyangdouyaozhenzhuo,ercongyinduyangyixiangdaomengjialawandehai-qitance,duijianglaidetianqizhanwangjianghenshiyoudaijia。jiuyuanlaikan,cihoutianqizhanwangbixuchenglizaiduitianqibiangengchongshizhengshidegenbenshang,bingbushizengqiangduixinjilvdeyantaohebawonengliquzhuxindetiaoxin。

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